This article was previously published on LinkedIn by Tommi Viiperi
Rapid action is needed to reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from maritime transport. Maritime transport accounts for almost 3% of global CO₂ emissions. Between 2023 and 2050, maritime transport will grow significantly due to expected increases in world trade and population growth.
The maritime sector predominantly relies on heavy fuel oil (HFO), marine diesel oil (MDO) and marine gas oil (MGO) as traditional fuels to power vessels. While these fuels have long been the workhorses of the industry, they come with significant environmental drawbacks. HFO, in particular, is notorious for its high sulfur content, leading to the emission of sulfur oxides (SOx), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter. These pollutants contribute to air pollution and acid rain and pose serious health risks to marine ecosystems and coastal communities. Additionally, the combustion of fossil fuels in marine engines is a significant source of CO₂ emissions, exacerbating climate change and ocean acidification.
Ambitious targets
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set ambitious emission reduction targets.
These targets include increased utilization of zero- and near zero-emission fuels by 2050, enabling a total greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction of at least 20% by 2030, and at least 70% by 2040, relative to 2008 levels.
The EU has also set its own targets with the FuelEU Maritime initiative. This includes, for example, reducing GHG energy intensity index of marine fuels-based emissions from maritime transport by around 80% by 2050, compared to 2008 levels. EU targets are increasing step by step every five years, starting with a 2% reduction in 2025.
Industry-specific challenges
At the same time, maritime transport faces its own challenges. Vessels have a much longer lifespan than their land-based counterparts. Regulation at the global level is still incomplete, and many of the proposed technical solutions have not yet achieved significant breakthroughs at the practical level.
All the simple solutions have already been exploited. A significant proportion of emission reductions are currently achieved through individual or a combination of different technical measures. The simplest implementation may start with reducing operating speed. In the future, only more technically and commercially challenging options will exist.
Costs will likely rise rapidly throughout the value chain, and several alternative technical choices will be necessary to meet carbon reduction targets in the foreseeable future.
The question of alternative fuels
Alternative fuels are making inroads but will not be available on a sufficiently large scale for years. For example, in DNV’s scenario, the shipping sector requires 17 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) of carbon-neutral fuels by 2030. Mirroring this to global availability, figures account for up to 30%-40% of total supply. At the same time, many other industrial sectors seek the same supply sources on a global scale. Again, the questions are also what consumers and operators can afford.
A positive and relatively fast-acting way forward for fuels is the increasing use of liquified natural gas (LNG) as a marine fuel. This is widely seen as an alternative fuel and creates conditions for reducing GHG emissions of around 20% for the fossil version.
Fossil fuels can also be an answer
Fossil fuels can also help solve the maritime emissions problem more broadly. This is the case if fossil fuels are used as feedstock for zero-emission hydrogen production and If the availability of electrolysis based green hydrogen or the biofuels is not improved rapidly at affordable cost.
Emissions can be significantly reduced by methane-splitting technology based on natural gas for marine installations. Such technology would allow the use of hydrogen in large ships, as well as carbon capture in a solid form, without the challenges of gaseous carbon capture and storage. The technology, also referred to as methane pyrolysis, is currently under development, and initial results are promising. Cost increases will also be limited by using existing infrastructure and minimizing changes to onboard technical solutions.
Zero emissions are still a long way off. The goal of maritime transport as a carbon sink is even further away. On the way to this goal, fossil fuels can be a quick solution instead of a burden and a problem.
Fossil fuels will also be around a little longer than estimated in their current form, provided that sufficiently effective packages of alternative methods are utilized.
Using captured CO₂ locally must also be possible without too stringent a requirement for a biological source to accelerate development.
We need pragmatic solutions instead of ideological ones
Are we brave enough to prepare for 2050 without knowing the potential requirements of future technological solutions? Will we be vigilant, turning the captain’s wheel in the desired direction and planning our ships from now on with the appropriate reservations?
What’s needed now is speed and effectiveness. In addition to cost implications, we need to be able to consider emissions as a whole and not just make decisions based on ideological grounds.
Download my report on emissions from shipping. The report includes information about:
- expected costs for the maritime industry
- international targets for reducing emissions from shipping and the future of regulation
- fuels traditionally used in shipping
- transitional solutions proposed for shipping
- maritime use of LNG, biofuels and methanol
- the future of maritime transport in competition with other industries
